Tag: politics

Hey Mr. IRS Man…

More news on the Prop 8 front…

Prop 8 LetterPerhaps its time to look into the political activism of the Mormon Church here in Southern California.  This post on LAist, talks about a letter received by blogger John Remy at Mind on Fire.  He states that the only reason he got the letter is because he is still on the official ward roster (though he’s trying to get removed).  In another post, he talks about what he’s hearing from friends around Orange County about the issue:

“From what my friends in Orange County wards tell me, this campaign is being reinforced every week in leadership councils as well as in Sacrament, Sunday School and Priesthood and Relief Society meetings. It sounds like similar pressure is being applied to members of Catholic and many evangelical communities as well (I’m mostly familiar with the LDS situation-if you have any information on other denominations, please let me know).”

You would think that this is a much more blatant case of political posturing from the pulpit, than the anti-war sermon preached at All Saints Episcopal Church in Pasadena.  Perhaps its time to do some investigations into at least this Orange County LDS Ward.

So where are you now Mr. IRS Man? (or Woman)

Permanent link to this article: https://www.rhinoblues.com/thoughts/2008/hey-mr-irs-man/

The Russo-Georgian War

I’ve been meaning to write something about the conflict in Georgia, but hadn’t gotten around to it yet.  This conflict has the potential to be world changing, yet no one is doing anything about it.  I don’t think this is because the West wants to ignore the issue (like they do in Darfur), but because they can’t really do anything about it.  Anyway, a friend found the article I’ve copied below, it explains why better than I could.

The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power

By George Friedman

The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery. This, as we have argued, has opened a window of opportunity for the Russians to reassert their influence in the former Soviet sphere. Moscow did not have to concern itself with the potential response of the United States or Europe; hence, the invasion did not shift the balance of power. The balance of power had already shifted, and it was up to the Russians when to make this public. They did that Aug. 8.

Let’s begin simply by reviewing the last few days.

On the night of Thursday, Aug. 7, forces of the Republic of Georgia drove across the border of South Ossetia, a secessionist region of Georgia that has functioned as an independent entity since the fall of the Soviet Union. The forces drove on to the capital, Tskhinvali, which is close to the border. Georgian forces got bogged down while trying to take the city. In spite of heavy fighting, they never fully secured the city, nor the rest of South Ossetia.

On the morning of Aug. 8, Russian forces entered South Ossetia, using armored and motorized infantry forces along with air power. South Ossetia was informally aligned with Russia, and Russia acted to prevent the region’s absorption by Georgia. Given the speed with which the Russians responded — within hours of the Georgian attack — the Russians were expecting the Georgian attack and were themselves at their jumping-off points. The counterattack was carefully planned and competently executed, and over the next 48 hours, the Russians succeeded in defeating the main Georgian force and forcing a retreat. By Sunday, Aug. 10, the Russians had consolidated their position in South Ossetia.

On Monday, the Russians extended their offensive into Georgia proper, attacking on two axes. One was south from South Ossetia to the Georgian city of Gori. The other drive was from Abkhazia, another secessionist region of Georgia aligned with the Russians. This drive was designed to cut the road between the Georgian capital of Tbilisi and its ports. By this point, the Russians had bombed the military airfields at Marneuli and Vaziani and appeared to have disabled radars at the international airport in Tbilisi. These moves brought Russian forces to within 40 miles of the Georgian  capital, while making outside reinforcement and resupply of Georgian forces extremely difficult should anyone wish to undertake it.

The Mystery Behind the Georgian Invasion

In this simple chronicle, there is something quite mysterious: Why did the Georgians choose to invade South Ossetia on Thursday night? There had been a great deal of shelling by the South Ossetians of Georgian villages for the previous three nights, but while possibly more intense than usual, artillery exchanges were routine. The Georgians might not have fought well, but they committed fairly substantial forces that must have taken at the very least several days to deploy and supply. Georgia’s move was deliberate.

The United States is Georgia’s closest ally. It maintained about 130 military advisers in Georgia, along with civilian advisers, contractors involved in all aspects of the Georgian government and people doing business in Georgia. It is inconceivable that the Americans were unaware of Georgia’s mobilization and intentions. It is also inconceivable that the Americans were unaware that the Russians had deployed substantial forces on the South Ossetian frontier. U.S. technical intelligence, from satellite imagery andsignals intelligence to unmanned aerial vehicles, could not miss the fact that thousands of Russian troops were moving to forward positions. The Russians clearly knew the Georgians were ready to move. How could the United States not be aware of the Russians? Indeed, given the posture of Russian troops, how could intelligence analysts have missed the possibility that the Russians had laid a trap, hoping for a Georgian invasion to justify its own counterattack?

It is very difficult to imagine that the Georgians launched their attack against U.S. wishes. The Georgians rely on the United States, and they were in no position to defy it. This leaves two possibilities. The first is a massive breakdown in intelligence, in which the United States either was unaware of the existence of Russian forces, or knew of the Russian forces but — along with the Georgians — miscalculated Russia’s intentions. The second is that the United States, along with other countries, has viewed Russia through the prism of the 1990s, when the Russian military was in shambles and the Russian government was paralyzed. The United States has not seen Russia make a decisive military move beyond its borders since the Afghan war of the 1970s-1980s. The Russians had systematically avoided such moves for years. The United States had assumed that the Russians would not risk the consequences of an invasion.

If this was the case, then it points to the central reality of this situation: The Russians had changed dramatically, along with the balance of power in the region. They welcomed the opportunity to drive home the new reality, which was that they could invade Georgia and the United States and Europe could not respond. As for risk, they did not view the invasion as risky. Militarily, there was no counter. Economically, Russia is an energy exporter doing quite well — indeed, the Europeans need Russian energy even more than the Russians need to sell it to them. Politically, as we shall see, the Americans needed the Russians more than the Russians needed the Americans. Moscow’s calculus was that this was the moment to strike. The Russians had been building up to it for months, as we have discussed, and they struck.

The Western Encirclement of Russia

To understand Russian thinking, we need to look at two events. The first is the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. From the U.S. and European point of view, the Orange Revolution represented a triumph of democracy and Western influence. From the Russian point of view, as Moscow made clear, the Orange Revolution was a CIA-funded intrusion into the internal affairs of Ukraine, designed to draw Ukraine into NATO and add to the encirclement of Russia. U.S. Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton had promised the Russians that NATO would not expand into the former Soviet Union empire. That promise had already been broken in 1998 by NATO’s expansion to Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic — and again in the 2004 expansion, which absorbed not only the rest of the former Soviet satellites in what is now Central Europe, but also the three Baltic states, which had been components of the Soviet Union.

The Russians had tolerated all that, but the discussion of including Ukraine in NATO represented a fundamental threat to Russia’s national security. It would have rendered Russia indefensible and threatened to destabilize the Russian Federation itself. When the United States went so far as to suggest that Georgia be included as well, bringing NATO deeper into the Caucasus, the Russian conclusion — publicly stated — was that the United States in particular intended to encircle and break Russia.

The second and lesser event was the decision by Europe and the United  States to back Kosovo’s separation from Serbia. The Russians were friendly with Serbia, but the deeper issue for Russia was this: The principle of Europe since World War II was that, to prevent conflict, national borders would not be changed. If that principle were violated in Kosovo, other border shifts — including demands by various regions for independence from Russia — might follow. The Russians publicly and privately asked that Kosovo not be given formal independence, but instead continue its informal autonomy, which was the same thing in practical terms. Russia’s requests were ignored.

From the Ukrainian experience, the Russians became convinced that the United States was engaged in a plan of strategic encirclement and strangulation of Russia. From the Kosovo experience, they concluded that the United States and Europe were not prepared to consider Russian wishes even in fairly minor affairs. That was the breaking point. If Russian desires could not be accommodated even in a minor matter like this, then clearly Russia and the West were in conflict. For the Russians, as we said, the question was how to respond. Having declined to respond in Kosovo, the Russians decided to respond where they had all the cards: in South Ossetia.

Moscow had two motives, the lesser of which was as a tit-for-tat over Kosovo. If Kosovo could be declared independent under Western sponsorship, then South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two breakaway regions of Georgia, could be declared independent under Russian sponsorship. Any objections from the United States and Europe would simply confirm their hypocrisy. This was important for internal Russian political reasons, but the second motive was far more important. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin once said that the fall of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical disaster. This didn’t mean that he wanted to retain the Soviet state; rather, it meant that the disintegration of the Soviet Union had created a situation in which Russian national security was threatened by Western interests. As an example, consider that during the Cold War, St. Petersburg was about 1,200 miles away from a NATO country. Today it is about 60 miles away from Estonia, a NATO member. The disintegration of the Soviet Union had left Russia surrounded by a group of countries hostile to Russian interests in various degrees and heavily influenced by the United States, Europe and, in some cases, China.

Resurrecting the Russian Sphere

Putin did not want to re-establish the Soviet Union, but he did want to re-establish the Russian sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union region. To accomplish that, he had to do two things. First, he had to re-establish the credibility of the Russian army as a fighting force, at least in the context of its region. Second, he had to establish that Western guarantees, including NATO membership, meant nothing in the face of Russian power. He did not want to confront NATO directly, but he did want to confront and defeat a power that was closely aligned with the United States, had U.S. support, aid and advisers and was widely seen as being under American protection. Georgia was the perfect choice.

By invading Georgia as Russia did (competently if not brilliantly), Putin re-established the credibility of the Russian army. But far more importantly, by doing this Putin revealed an open secret: While the United States is tied down in the Middle East, American guarantees have no value. This lesson is not for American consumption. It is something that, from the Russian point of view, the Ukrainians, the Balts and the Central Asians need to digest. Indeed, it is a lesson Putin wants to transmit to Poland and the Czech Republic as well. The United States wants to place ballistic missile defense installations in those countries, and the Russians want them to understand that allowing this to happen increases their risk, not their security.

The Russians knew the United States would denounce their attack. This actually plays into Russian hands. The more vocal senior leaders are, the greater the contrast with their inaction, and the Russians wanted to drive home the idea that American guarantees are empty talk.

The Russians also know something else that is of vital importance: For the United States, the Middle East is far more important than the  Caucasus, and Iran is particularly important. The United States wants the Russians to participate in sanctions against Iran. Even more importantly, they do not want the Russians to sell weapons to Iran, particularly the highly effective S-300 air defense system. Georgia is a marginal issue to the United States; Iran is a central issue. The Russians are in a position to pose serious problems for the United States not only in Iran, but also with weapons sales to other countries, like Syria.

Therefore, the United States has a problem — it either must reorient its strategy away from the Middle East and toward the Caucasus, or it has to seriously limit its response to Georgia to avoid a Russian counter in Iran. Even if the United States had an appetite for another war in Georgia at this time, it would have to calculate the Russian response in Iran — and possibly in Afghanistan (even though Moscow’s interests there are currently aligned with those of Washington).

In other words, the Russians have backed the Americans into a corner. The Europeans, who for the most part lack expeditionary militaries and are dependent upon Russian energy exports, have even fewer options. If nothing else happens, the Russians will have demonstrated that they have resumed their role as a regional power. Russia is not a global power by any means, but a significant regional power with lots of nuclear weapons and an economy that isn’t all too shabby at the moment. It has also compelled every state on the Russian periphery to re-evaluate its position relative to Moscow. As for Georgia, the Russians appear ready to demand the resignation of President Mikhail Saakashvili. Militarily, that is their option. That is all they wanted to demonstrate, and they have demonstrated it.

The war in Georgia, therefore, is Russia’s public return to great power status. This is not something that just happened — it has been unfolding ever since Putin took power, and with growing intensity in the past five years. Part of it has to do with the increase of Russian power, but a great deal of it has to do with the fact that the Middle Eastern wars have left the United States off-balance and short on resources. As we have written, this conflict created a window of opportunity. The Russian goal is to use that window to assert a new reality throughout the region while the Americans are tied down elsewhere and dependent on the Russians. The war was far from a surprise; it has been building for months. But the geopolitical foundations of the war have been building since 1992. Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.

*Article Text reprinted from http://www.stratfor.com, any reuse of article text must be attributed to http://www.stratfor.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://www.rhinoblues.com/thoughts/2008/the-russo-georgian-war/

Propostition 8

Well it’s a big election year, and perhaps one of the most hard fought ballot measures on the November ballot in California will be Proposition 8.

Because of the recent court ruling legalizing same-sex marriage in California, the text of the Proposition changed.  Prior to the ruling the proposition would have modified the state constitution to say that marriage is only between a man and a woman.  Now the text of the Proposition is as follows:

Proposition 8. Eliminates Right of Same-Sex Couples to Marry.

Changes California Constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry.  Provides that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid in California.  Fiscal Impact: Over the next few years, potential revenue loss, mainly sales taxes, totaling in serveal tens of millions of dollars, to state and local governments.  In the long run, likely little fiscal impact on state and local governments.

Of course the proponents of Prop 8 fought hard to have the original language placed on the ballot.  Because people are more likely to vote against something that “eliminates the right” of someone.  Here is the original language:

Proposition 8. Limit on Marriage.

Amends the California Constitution to provide that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. Summary of estimate by Legislative Analyst and Director of Finance of fiscal impact on state and local government: The measure would have no fiscal effect on state or local governments. This is because there would be no change to the manner in which marriages are currently recognized by the state.

While the LA Times’ Editorial Board, was deliberating on their official position on the ballot measure, they invited folks from each side of the measure to hear what they had to say.  In the final editorial they left out some interesting comments made by the Pro-Prop 8 group.  The supporters of Prop 8 generally try to present it as a “Defense of Marriage,” and that they are not anti-gay (“in fact some of their good friends are gay”).  However, what the LA Times’ Editorial Board found during their session doesn’t seem to hold up that argument:

“At one point, the conversation turned to the “activist judges” whose May ruling opened the door to same-sex marriage, and how similar this case was to the 1948 case that declared bans on interracial marriage unconstitutional. According to one of the Prop. 8 reps, that 1948 ruling was OK because people are born to their race and thus are in need of constitutional protection, while gays and lesbians choose their homosexuality. So much for the expert opinions of the American Psychological Assn. and the American Academy of Pediatrics that people cannot choose their sexuality. Oh, those activist doctor types.

In any case, one Prop. 8 supporter said, gay rights are not as important as children’s rights, and it’s obvious that same-sex couples who married would “recruit” their children toward homosexuality because otherwise, unable to procreate themselves, they would have no way to replenish their numbers. Even editorial writers can be left momentarily speechless, and this was one of those moments. Aside from this notion of a homosexual recruitment plot — making it understandable where the word “homophobia” came from — this made no logical sense at all. Same-sex couples. whether married or not, already have children. Marriage wouldn’t change a thing about this picture except, perhaps, to model for children that parents tend to be married.”

It amazes me that so many people put so much energy in “defending the sacred right of marriage.”  In the context of governmental oversight, which is what all these measures are, marriage is just a civil contract.  One that can be (and is) broken rather easily.  Our idea of marriage as an institution has constantly evolved throughout history.  Even the idea that we “marry for love” is a relatively new one.  Throughout much of history, marriages were arranged in order to expand the influence of the family’s status or class.

What I have the hardest time understanding is how a same-sex couple being able to marry threatens a marriage between a mixed-gender couple.  As a straight man, I’m not likely to date (or marry) a gay man.  Likewise, a woman who is interested in dating women, is likely not going to want to marry me anyway.

For all those folks that claim they want “government to stay out of their business,” legislating marriage sure seems to be right up in our grills.

Permanent link to this article: https://www.rhinoblues.com/thoughts/2008/propostition-8/

a new beginning?

Today I hope is a new beginning for the United States.  Voters have made a loud and clear statement of unhappiness with the direction of our country.  The balance of power has clearly shifted in the House of Representatives and currently looks to swing in the Senate as well.  However, we will not know the results of the final Senate race for probably a month.

The results of the elections were good news in its own right.  However even better news came this morning.  Donald Rumsfeld is stepping down as the Secretary of Defense.  Perhaps now, the military leaders can actually implement strategies that will help end the conflict in Iraq instead of inciting conflict.

Permanent link to this article: https://www.rhinoblues.com/thoughts/2006/a-new-beginning/

short update

I’m really going to try to finish a few posts about the time at the abbey in the next day or so.

New Jersey’s Supreme court has ruled that the NJ constitution requires the state to provide the same set of rights and privileges to same sex couples as it does to “married”(straight) couples.  More details on Crooks and Liars: NJ Supreme Court: Gay couples entitled to equal spousal rights

Permanent link to this article: https://www.rhinoblues.com/thoughts/2006/short-update/

Special Comment: Advertising Terrorism

Another Special Comment from Keith Olbermann:

Advertising Terrorism

An excerpt:

But to forgive you for terrorizing us, we would have to believe you somehow competent in keeping others from doing so.

Yet, last week, construction workers repairing a subway line in New York City, were cleaning out an abandoned manhole on the edge of the World Trade Center site, when they stumbled on to the impossible:  human remains from 9/11.

Bones and fragments.

Eighty of them.

Some as much as a foot long.

The victims had been lying, literally in the gutter, for five years and five weeks.

The families and friends of each of the 2,749 dead–who had been grimly told in May of 2002 that there were no more remains to be found–were struck anew as if the terrorism of that day had just happened again.

And over the weekend they’ve found still more remains.

And now this week will be spent looking in places that should have already been looked at a thousand times five years ago.

For all the victims in New York, Mr. Bush–the living and the dead–it’s a touch of 9/11 all over again.

And the mayor of this city, who called off the search four-and-a-half years ago is a Republican.

The governor of this state with whom he conferred is a Republican.

The House of Representatives, Republican.

The Senate, Republican.

The President, Republican.

And yet you can actually claim that you and you alone can protect us from terrorism?

You can’t even recover our dead from the battlefield–the battlefield in an American city–when we’ve given you five years and unlimited funds to do so!

Permanent link to this article: https://www.rhinoblues.com/thoughts/2006/special-comment-advertising-terrorism/

The death of habeas corpus

The President finally signed the Military Commissions Act of 2006.  This is a scary bill, that hopefully will get wiped off the books, either by the Supreme Court or by the next Congressional session.  A lot of the stuff going on at the governmental level reminds me of the Antibalas’ song “Who is this America?”  Honestly I don’t know.

A Special Comment by Keith Olbermann.  See below the cut for the text of Olbermann’s comment.  (He says this much more eloquently than I could)

Glenn Greenwald’s take.


Continue reading

Permanent link to this article: https://www.rhinoblues.com/thoughts/2006/the-death-of-habeas-corpus/

The Party of Patriots?

from Crooks and Liars (via MyDD)

Paul Evans is the real deal. City Councilman in Monmouth, Oregon at age 18, Evans has been twice elected as the city’s mayor, served in the Air Force and the Air National Guard and been a teacher at Western Oregon University and Oregon State University. Evans is currently running as a Democrat for the State Senate in Oregon, his campaign representing one of the party’s best pick-up opportunities in the chamber this year. And now he has been informed that he will be shipping out for duty in Afghanistan on November 5, as Peter Wong reports for the Salem Statesman Journal.

When Election Day rolls around three weeks from today, Oregon Senate candidate Paul Evans will learn his fate from afar: Afghanistan.

Evans, a veteran of the Air Force and Oregon Air National Guard, will be en route to the nation with the 116th Air Control Squadron.

He is scheduled to leave Nov. 5, 10 days ahead of his original deployment date. His mission will last 60 days — which means he would be back for the opening of the legislative session on Jan. 8 if he is elected Nov. 7 to the Senate District 10 seat.

[…] In a written statement, he said, “When my commander said I was needed, there was no question of whether or not I would go. Duty calls.”

[…]He likely is the nation’s only candidate who will be on active duty in the Middle East on Election Day.  (Read More from the Statesman Journal)


Permanent link to this article: https://www.rhinoblues.com/thoughts/2006/the-party-of-patriots/

An answer from Bush?

Permanent link to this article: https://www.rhinoblues.com/thoughts/2006/an-answer-from-bush/

A Brave New World

This is the world the Bush administration has helped create.  A world where nuclear weapons are spreading.  Eventually something very, very bad is going to happen.

See Glenn Greenwald’s blog for his take on the situation. (There’s no need for me to recreate the wheel)

More from Gleen Greenwald: Iraq vs. North Korea 

I wonder what we can do to change this course we seem to be on. 

Permanent link to this article: https://www.rhinoblues.com/thoughts/2006/a-brave-new-world/